Jonathan Donges How Do Climate Change Related Natural Disasters Potentially Increase the Risk of Armed Conflicts?

Jonathan Donges is a postdoctoral researcher at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Germany, as well as Stordalen Scholar at the Planetary Boundaries Research Lab at the Stockholm Resilience Centre of Stockholm University, Sweden. Furthermore, he co-heads PIK’s flagship project COPAN on Coevolutionary Pathways in the Earth system (www.pik-potsdam.de/copan) which investigates the mid- and long-term coevolution of natural and socio-economic subsystems of the Earth system and its relationship to planetary boundaries. For his PhD thesis on Earth system analysis Donges received the Donald L. Turcotte award for outstanding dissertations in nonlinear geophysics from the American Geophysical Union, the Friedrich-Hirzebruch dissertation award (2nd mention) of the German National Academic Foundation and the Wladimir Peter Köppen Prize of the Cluster of Excellence CliSAP, Hamburg.

Area of Research

Earth System Analysis, Socio-Ecological Systems, Complex Network Dynamics

Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Jonathan F. Donges, Denis A. Engemann and Anders Levermann. "Clustered Marginalization of Minorities During Social Transitions Induced by Co-evolution of Behaviour and Network Structure." Scientific Reports 6 (2016).  
Jonathan F. Donges, Jobst Heitzig, Boyan Beronov, Marc Wiedermann, Jakob Runge, Qing Yi Feng, Liubov Tupikina, Veronika Stolbova, Reik V. Donner and Norbert Marwan. "Unified Functional Network and Nonlinear Time Series Analysis for Complex Systems Science: The Pyunicorn Package." Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science 25 (2015): 101-113.  
Jonathan F. Donges, Reik Donner, Norbert Marwan, Sebastian F. M. Breitenbach, Kira Rehfeld and Jürgen Kurths. "Non-linear Regime Shifts in Holocene Asian Nonsoon Variability: Potential Impacts on Cultural Change and Migratory Patterns." Climate of the Past 11 (2015): 709-741.  
Jonathan F. Donges, Reik V. Donner, Martin H. Trauth, Norbert. Marwan, Hans-Joachim Schellnhuber and Jürgen Kurths. "Nonlinear Detection of Paleoclimate-variability Transitions Possibly Related to Human Evolution." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 108 (2011): 20422-20427.  

since 2013

Co‐Head

Potsdam‐Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)

Flagship Project COPAN on Coevolutionary Pathways in the Earth System

since 2013

Joint Post‐Doc

Potsdam‐Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)

Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Sweden

2009-2012

PhD

Humboldt University of Berlin (Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin)

Potsdam‐Institute for Climate Impact Research and Department of Physics

2009

Diploma

University of Potsdam (Universität Potsdam)

2008-2009

Final Year Project

University of Potsdam (Universität Potsdam)

Department of Physics and Astronomy

2006-2007

Year of Study

University of California, San Diego

2005-2009

Graduate Studies of Physics

University of Potsdam (Universität Potsdam)

2003-2005

Undergraduate Studies in Physics

University of Bonn (Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn)

Prizes

Wladimir Peter Köppen Prize, Cluster of Excellence CliSAP, Hamburg (2015)

Friedrich‐Hirzebruch Dissertation Award (2nd mention), German National Academic Foundation (2014)

Donald L. Turcotte Award for Outstanding Dissertations in Nonlinear Geophysics, American Geophysical Union (2013)

PhD Scholarship, German National Academic Foundation (2010-2012)

Falling Walls Lab Scholarship, Falling Walls Foundation and A.T. Kearney (2011)

Award for Outstanding Graduates in Physics, Physical Society of Berlin and WE‐Heraeus Foundation (2010)

Scholarship, Education Abroad Program, University of California (2006-2007)

Fulbright Scholarship, German‐American Fulbright Commission (2006-2007)

Hölderlin Scholarship, German National Academic Foundation and Siemens Management Consulting (2006-2007)

Scholarship, German National Academic Foundation (2005-2009)

There is an extensive discussion about the connections between climate change related disasters and armed conflicts like civil wars. JONATHAN DONGES explains in this video how the research team looked at this relationship in more detail. Their new approach connects natural disasters with large economic effects, potentially related conflicts as well as the socioeconomic contexts. The findings show that in countries with a high ethnical fractionalization the likelihood of armed conflict related to natural disasters is particularly high. This relationship is surprisingly stronger than all other socioeconomic issues like poverty, inequality or the country’s conflict history. The study also reveals a particularly strong impact of heat waves and droughts on a potential armed conflict. The implications of this research call for a more synchronized approach of climate and security policies.

LT Video Publication DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.21036/LTPUB10336

Armed-conflict Risks Enhanced by Climate-related Disasters in Ethnically Fractionalized Countries

  • Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Jonathan F. Donges, Reik V. Donner and Hans Joachim Schellnhuber
  • Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
  • Published in 2016

Chicago

Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Jonathan F. Donges, Reik V. Donner and Hans Joachim Schellnhuber. "Armed-conflict Risks Enhanced by Climate-related Disasters in Ethnically Fractionalized Countries." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 113 (2016): 9216-9221.