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Pro-cyclical fertility means that families have more children when macroeconomic conditions are better. In this video, SENA COSKUN explores the complex factors that underpin such decisions. Conducting an empirical study which analyzes data from different US states since the 1970s as well as theoretical modeling, Coskun emphasizes the importance of gender to fertility dynamics. Generally speaking, women tend to work in industries (e.g. health, education) that are less impacted by recession than men. The likelihood that they will need to take on the role of breadwinner during a recession can push them towards deciding to invest in education rather than having more children. This is a key factor underlying pro-cyclical fertility and one that needs to be taken into account in policy formulation and implementation.


Sena Coskun is a Postdoctoral Researcher at the University of Mannheim where she is a member of the collaborative research center CRC TR 224. Until March 2020, Coskunwas a visiting scholar at Northwestern University where she completed her PhD. Her research focuses on macroeconomics, labor economics and family economics. Among the prizes Coskun has received are a Turkish Presidential Scholarship, an Eiffel Scholarshipfrom the Toulouse School of Economics and a Dissertation Fellowship from Northwestern University.


University of Mannheim (Universität Mannheim)

For generations, the University of Mannheim has been preparing students to take on leadership roles in business, academia, and society. One of the university’s strengths in this task is its profile, which is characterized by the economic and social sciences. It is in these fields that the University of Mannheim has repeatedly been ranked as one of the top 20 European research institutions. Key focuses of Mannheim researchers include decision-making processes and elections, governance, regulation, competition and innovation, migration and multilingualism, and the culture of change. The campus surrounding Mannheim’s baroque palace is a place where bright minds from across the globe come together to learn, discuss, research, and prepare to make their mark on the world.
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Original publication

The Emergence of Procyclical Fertility: The Role of Gender Differences in Employment Risk

Coskun Sena and Dalgic Husnu
Published in 2020

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